Lithuanian Environment Minister Sounds Alarm Over Russian Shadow Fleet in The Baltic Sea
On the margins of the upcoming informal meeting of EU Environment Ministers in Denmark on 10–11 July, Lithuanian Environment Minister Povilas Poderskis will raise the alarm over the growing threat posed by Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Baltic Sea. He plans to urge EU member states to support a non-paper calling for stronger joint action to tackle the issue. Poderskis will also press the European Commission to take swift, coordinated, and targeted measures at the EU level to address this escalating risk.
The Russian “shadow fleet” typically consists of aging vessels in poor and often dangerous condition, operating outside international safety and environmental regulations and often lacking proper registration. These ships manipulate vessel identification systems, tampering with location data. There is an increased risk of oil spills, chemical leaks, or other incidents that could cause lasting damage to the Baltic Sea region and Europe as a whole, threatening the ecological balance, biodiversity, fisheries, and local communities.
Russia’s “shadow fleet” has become a crucial tool for sustaining oil exports via the Baltic Sea despite Western sanctions. Although the precise size of Russia’s “shadow fleet” is difficult to pin down, estimates suggest it is vast and growing. S&P Global places the total number of tankers involved in Russian oil trade at around 591, including about 271 so-called “dark fleet” vessels that routinely obscure their movements. Meanwhile, the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) reports a slightly lower estimate of 435 vessels overall (185 for crude oil, 250 for refined products), with a core group of 86 ships consistently active from 2023 into the first half of 2024.
To illustrate the potential scale of damage, the formal theoretical cost of water pollution alone from an oil spill of 100,000 tons (the capacity of an average tanker) is estimated at approximately EUR 4 billion, assuming the entire volume were to dissolve, evaporate, or sink (about EUR 40,000 per ton). However, the actual environmental damage would vary significantly depending on numerous factors, including contamination of beaches and natural areas, mortality of birds, fish, and other marine animals, as well as tourism-related losses. In some cases, the overall damage could be substantially higher, according to Lithuanian government’s estimates.
Minister Poderskis emphasizes that while Directive (EU) 2025/811, which entered into force on 19 February 2025 and requires ships to provide insurance information, is a major step forward, it remains insufficient. He stresses the importance of enhancing the effectiveness of enforcement measures – such as verifying whether vessels are subject to prohibition notices, conducting inspections in EU waters, intercepting non-compliant ships, and ensuring strict adherence to sanctions. Achieving this requires a coordinated and unified approach across EU Member States. Additional measures, including the use of artificial intelligence for monitoring and joint patrols in the Baltic Sea, would further strengthen control mechanisms.
"Monitoring, control, and response capabilities for the marine environment must be reinforced to prevent potential ecological disasters. This is not only an environmental issue – it is also crucial for the security of our region. I wish for the Danish presidency to enter history by hitting dictators where it hurts most: into fossil fuels that finance terror and violence. It would benefit the world equally well like ambitious climate goals that they are going for," notes Minister Povilas Poderskis.
Considering the risks and the conclusions adopted by the European Council on 26 June 2025, which call for further action against the Russian shadow fleet, Lithuania urges the European Commission to ensure a coordinated, cross-sectoral, and targeted EU response. All Member States are invited to consider joining the non-paper and are encouraged to make their decisions by 1 September 2025.
Last updated: 09-07-2025
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